| Emma Villas closed the first half of 2026 with sales revenues of € 10.12 million, up 13.2% compared to € 8.94 million in 1H25A, and a Value of Production of € 10.42 million, increasing by 15.7% compared to € 9.00 million in 1H25A. In terms of profitability, EBITDA stood at € -2.54 million, representing a 36.4% improvement compared to € -4.00 million in 1H25A. After depreciation, amortization and impairment charges of € 0.63 million (€ 0.62 million in 1H25A), EBIT amounted to € -3.18 million, improving by 31.3% compared to € -4.62 million in 1H25A, while Net Income stood at € -2.50 million, with the net loss narrowing by 30.4% compared to € -3.60 million in 1H25A. From a balance sheet perspective, the NFP was cash positive at € 10.01 million, compared to a net debt position of € 1.64 million at the end of 2025. In light of the results published in the half-year financial report for 1H26A, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate a Value of Production of € 41.40 million for FY26E and EBITDA of € 2.55 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 6.2%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to € 48.00 million (CAGR 25A-28E: 4.6%) in FY28E, with EBITDA reaching € 3.85 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 8.0%), up from € 1.55 million in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 3.7%). Finally, from a balance sheet perspective, we expect an improvement in the NFP, which, according to our estimates, will decrease from a net debt position of € 1.64 million in FY25A to a net debt position of € 0.90 million in FY26E. We have assessed the equity value of Emma Villas using the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, also includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of €17.8 million. Emma Villas’ equity value, calculated using market multiples, amounts to €15.7 million (including a discount of 25%). This results in an average equity value of approximately €16.8 million. The target price is € 2.40, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
