| As of June 30, 2026, Alfio Bardolla Training Group’s Value of Production amounted to € 6.82 million, down 37.4% compared to € 10.90 million in the first half of 2025. This figure includes a capital gain of € 0.43 million generated from the disposal of the stake in AGL Aste Immobiliari S.r.l.; revenues from sales and services amounted to € 6.29 million, down 41.3% compared to € 10.70 million in 1H25A. EBITDA was negative at € -0.34 million, corresponding to a margin of -4.9% on total revenues, compared to € 1.70 million (15.6% of revenues) in 1H25A. EBIT was negative at € -1.15 million, compared to a positive € 1.03 million in the first half of 2025. Net Income was negative at € -1.08 million, compared to a positive € 0.61 million in 1H25A. At the balance sheet level, the NFP stood at € 1.02 million of net debt, representing a 29.7% improvement compared to € 1.46 million at year-end 2025. In light of the results published in the interim financial report for 1H26A, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate FY26E Value of Production of € 17.85 million and EBITDA of € 0.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 0.0%. For the following years, we expect Value of Production to increase to € 22.00 million (CAGR 25A-28E: 3.8%) in FY28E, with EBITDA reaching € 3.05 million (corresponding to a margin of 14.5%), compared to € 1.65 million in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 8.8%). Finally, at the balance sheet level, according to our estimates, NFP will improve from € 1.46 million of net debt in FY25A to € 1.19 million of net debt in FY26E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of ABTG based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 16.2 million. The target price is € 3.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
