Emma Villas S.p.A. /27.09.2023

Ultima Ricerca Emma Villas S.p.A.

• UPDATE – 26.04.2024

  The value of production amounted to € 32.71 million, marking a growth of 13.5% compared to the € 28.83 million recorded in the 2022 pro-forma financial statements, and slightly down on the € 36.25 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, at € 1.91 million, was up on the figure for the previous year, equal to € 1.26 million. The EBITDA margin, equal to 5.8%, came in higher than the equivalent figure for 2022, equal to 4.4%, despite a general increase in operating costs. Adjusted EBITDA, for Emma Villas, reached € 3.90 million in 2023, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9%, marking an increase of 34.6% compared to € 2.90 million in 2022, with a margin of 10.1%. Net Income amounted to € 0.94 million, compared to € 0.21 million recorded in FY22A*, and lower than our expectation of € 3.00 million.  In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 38.50 million, and an EBITDA of € 4.65 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 50.45 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 15.5%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 6.65 million (corresponding to a margin of 13.2%), up from € 1.91 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 5.8%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Emma Villas based on the DCF method and on multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 47.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Emma Villas was calculated as € 36.6 million (including a 25.0% discount). The average equity value is approximately € 41.8 million. The target price is € 6.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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