| At the end of the first half of 2026, Promotica Group announced consolidated sales revenues of € 61.65 mln, down 9.6% compared to € 68.23 mln recorded in 1H25A. Despite the decline in revenues, EBITDA came in at € 6.03 mln, up 10.2% compared to € 5.47 mln in the first half of the previous year. The EBITDA margin reached 9.8%, improving from 8.0% in 1H25A, benefiting from more efficient management of direct costs. EBIT, after depreciation, amortization and impairment charges totaling € 1.63 mln, amounted to € 4.40 mln, compared to € 4.89 mln in 1H25A, with an EBIT margin of 7.1%, substantially stable compared to 7.2% in 1H25A. Net income amounted to € 3.45 mln, up 28.5% compared to € 2.69 mln as of 30 June 2025. This performance reflects the improvement in the Group’s operating profitability and a lower tax burden in the period. In light of the results published in the half-year report as of 30 June 2026, we have slightly revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. We estimate a value of production for FY26E of € 142.80 mln and EBITDA of € 12.20 mln, corresponding to a margin of 8.6%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 175.80 mln (CAGR 25A-28E: 8.6%) in FY28E, with EBITDA of € 18.10 mln (corresponding to a margin of 10.4%), up from € 10.25 mln in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 7.5%). On the balance sheet side, we estimate a net cash position of € 3.90 mln for FY28E. We conducted the valuation of Promotica’s equity value using the DCF methodology, including a specific risk premium of 2.5%. This results in an equity value of € 122.90 mln. The target price is therefore € 7.20. We confirm our BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
