| As of 30 June 2026, Convergenze recorded a value of production of € 13.21 mln, up 3.5% compared to € 12.75 mln in 1H25A, thanks to the positive contribution of both Business Units, TLC and Energy. Adj. EBITDA stood at € 1.97 mln, slightly down from € 2.18 mln in 1H25A, with an Adj. EBITDA margin of 14.9% (17.1% as of 30 June 2025), reflecting the higher incidence of procurement costs in the Energy BU. Reported EBITDA came in at € 1.94 mln (€ 2.11 mln in 1H25A), with a margin of 14.7%. Consequently, EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of approximately € 1.03 mln, amounted to € 0.91 mln (€ 1.03 mln in 1H25A), while net income remained positive at approximately € 0.41 mln, compared to € 0.49 mln in the comparative period. In light of the results published in the 1H26A half-year report, we have slightly revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. We estimate a value of production for FY26E of € 27.20 mln and EBITDA of € 4.47 mln, corresponding to a margin of 16.4%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 31.20 mln (CAGR 25A-28E: 6.4%) in FY28E, with EBITDA of € 5.95 mln (corresponding to a margin of 19.1%), up from € 3.73 mln in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.4%). On the balance sheet side, we estimate a net debt position of € 0.18 mln for FY28E. We conducted the valuation of Convergenze’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and on the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, also includes a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) returns an equity value of € 32.00 mln. Convergenze’s equity value based on market multiples is € 29.47 mln. This results in an average equity value of € 30.73 mln. The target price is € 4.10, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
