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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 10.10.2022

The value of production stood at € 3.04 million, 34.9% up compared to 1H21A, when it amounted to € 2.25 million. This increase, together with the greater requests received from customers for the ICC operations center activity, denotes the effectiveness of the strategy undertaken by the Company to increase end-user customer loyalty and the B2B2C model. EBITDA was negative for € 0.15 million; the decrease is mainly due to the significant increase in costs for services attributable both to the activity of the Operations Centre for the use of external suppliers and to the management of the Health Department and the Team of professionals who collaborate with the Company. Net Income is also negative and equal to – € 0,45 million (vs € 0,20 million all’1H21A). 

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22A value of production equal to € 6.80 million and EBITDA of € 0.15 million, corresponding to a marginality of 2.4%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 11.50 million (CAGR 20A-25E: 27.5%) in FY25E, with EBITDA of € 2.60 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 23.2%), up from € 13.99 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.2%).

Given the lack of comparable companies, we have conducted the valuation of I.C.C. equity value based on the DCF method.  The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 23.6 million. The target price is € 5.20 (prev. € 6.00 mln), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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