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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 05.10.2022


The VoP in 1H22A amounted to € 23.35 million, with a sales revenues value of € 22.95 million, registering a growth of 20.7% compared to 1H21A (€ 19.34 million). EBITDA, equal to € 9.59 million, recorded an increase of 22.4% compared to € 7.83 million in 1H21A. The EBITDA Margin, equal to 41.1%, also increased compared to the figure for the first half of last year (40.5%). EBIT amounted to € 6.03 million (€ 5.27 million in 1H21A) with an EBIT margin of 25.8%. Net profit amounted to € 4.27 million, up compared to the figure as of 30/06/2022 (€ 3.79 million). The NFP as of 30 June 2022 amounted to € 9.59 million of debt.

In the light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E value of production equal to € 47.80 million and EBITDA of € 20.05 million, corresponding to a marginality of 41.9%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 70.50 million (CAGR 21A-25E: 14.34%) in FY25E, with EBITDA of € 29.75 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 42.2%), compared to € 17.64 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 42.8%).

We have conducted the valuation of Intred equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 1.0%) provides an equity value of € 490.9 million. The equity value of Intred using the market multiples is equal to €311.8 Mln. The result is an average equity value of approx. € 401.4 million. The target price is, therefore, € 25.30 (prev. € 25.30), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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