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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 29.09.2022

The value of production amounted to € 11.01 million, an increase of 20.7% compared to the value recorded on 30 June 2021, equal to € 9.12 million. EBITDA on 30 June 2022 amounted to € 1.41 million, up compared to the previous period, when it stood at € 0.08 million. Similarly, the EBITDA margin increased from 0.8% of 1H21A to 12.8% of 1H22A. The Group’s EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.67 million, amounted to € 0.74 million. With reference to Net Income, the Group managed to change from a loss of € – 0.31 million in 1H21A to a profit of € 0.54 million in 1H22A. The NFP went from € 2.78 million on 31 December 2021 to € 3.38 million at the end of the first half of 2022.

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we confirm almost entirely our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate the value of production 2022A equal to € 20.50 million and an EBITDA equal to € 2.40 million, corresponding to a marginality of 11.7%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 28.15 million (CAGR 21A-25E: 19.8%) in 2025E, with EBITDA of € 5.25 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 18.7%), up from € 2.08 million in 2021A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.2%). In terms of the Balance Sheet, we estimate an NFP for 2025E cash positive and equal to € 6.07 million.

We have conducted the valuation of Lindbergh equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 42.6 million. The equity value of Lindbergh using market multiples is equal to € 16.8 million (including a discount of 25%). The result is an average equity value of approx. € 29.7 million. The target price is € 3.50, rating BUY and MEDIUM risk.

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