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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 07.10.2022

The Group recorded value of production of € 26.33 million, +15.7% vs. € 22.76 million as of 1H21A. EBITDA as of June 30, 2022 was € 2.41 million, down 20.0% vs. € 3.02 million in 1H21A. The Company was affected by the uncertain global environment, which resulted in major increases in raw material prices (both industrial metals and electricity and gas) and difficulties in materials procurement; the EBITDA margin was therefore 9.2%. EBIT, after depreciation, amortization and write-downs of € 1.93 million, amounted to € 0.48 million, almost halved compared to the value at 1H21A. Consequently, EBIT margin also declined, from 4.2% to 1.8% as of June 30, 2022. Net income was positive at € 0.54 million. 

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate the FY22E value of production equal to € 52.50 million and EBITDA of € 5.35 million, corresponding to a marginality of 10.2%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 57.50 million (CAGR 21A-24E: 6.2%) in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 7.20 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 12.5%), up from € 6.72 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.0%).

We have conducted the valuation of Vimi Fasteners equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 44.9 million. The equity value of Vimi Fasteners using market multiples is equal to € 15.0 million (with a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of € 29.9 million. The target price is € 2.20 (prev. € 2.85), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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