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Research, Update 12 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 04.10.2022

Altea recorded value of production of € 7.50 mln, +181.0% compared to the value of  € 2.67 mln in the first half of 2021, due to the start of activities related to Co-development projects. EPC and Energy Efficiency activities, on the other hand, slow down to prioritize projects with higher margins. EBITDA as of 1H22A is equal to € 1.78 mln, registering 100.0% growth compared to 1H21, when it amounted to € 0.89 mln. EBITDA margin decreased to 23.7% (vs. 33.3% at 1H21A) due to higher service costs and the closure of some projects. Net income is positive and equal to € 1.17 mln.

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we confirm almost entirely our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22A value of production equal to € 16.50 million and EBITDA of € 6.00 million, corresponding to a marginality of 36.4%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 36.50 million (CAGR FY21A – FY26E: 42.5%) in FY26E, with EBITDA of € 13.50 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 37.0%), up from € 2.15 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 34.5%).

We have conducted the valuation of Altea equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 98.9 million. The equity value of Altea using market multiples is equal to € 62.6 million (with a 10% discount). The result is an average equity value of € 80.8 million. The target price is € 5.00 (prev. € 5.40), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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