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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 05.10.2022

The Brokerage Margin as of 30 June 2022 amounted to € 1.45 million, marking a negative variation of 24.5% compared to the first half of 2021, in which a value of € 1.93 million was observed. The EBITDA, equal to € -0.43 million, decreased compared to the value of 1H21A, which stood at € 0.06 million. As a result, the EBITDA margin decreased from 2.1% in 1H21A to -17.1% in 1H22A. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.17 million, amounted to € -0.61 million, down from the figure for the first half of the previous fiscal year (€ -0.11 million), corresponding to an EBIT margin of -23.8% compared to -3.6% in 1H21A. Net Income amounted to € -0.58 million (compared to € -0.12 million on 30 June 2021).

In the light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate Brokerage Margin for FY22A at € 3.50 million and EBITDA at € -0.30 million, corresponding to a marginality of -4.9%. For the following years, we expect the Brokerage Margin to increase to € 5.55 million (CAGR 21A-25E: 9.5%) in FY25E, with EBITDA of € 1.35 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.3%), up from € 0.09 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 1.5%). We estimate an NFP for FY25E cash positive and equal to € 2.57 million.

We conducted the valuation of SCM’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and the complex equity method. The value resulting from the application of the DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) is equal to € 9.6 million, while that resulting from the complex equity method is equal to € 14.7 million. The result is an average equity value of € 12.1 million. The target price is € 6.05 (prev. € 8.74), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. 

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