| ESPE closed FY25A with strong results, with Value of Production equal to € 83.31 million (+26.2%), EBITDA of € 15.10 million (+74.8%) and EBITDA margin at 18.1%. The improvement reflects growth in the utility scale and agrivoltaic segments, the larger average size of contracts and the consolidation of the Group’s perimeter, while also benefiting from a favourable phasing effect on certain multi-year projects. The investment case remains focused on photovoltaics, which accounts for approximately 90.0% of revenues and around 97.0% of backlog. The order backlog, equal to € 99.80 million as of 13 May 2026, provides visibility through the end of 2027 and supports growth estimates, with expected Value of Production of € 91.50 million in FY26E and € 110.50 million in FY27E. The Company is also strengthening its positioning along the renewable energy value chain through O&M, Energy Security, BESS and the development of electrical substations, power skids and shelters. Although these activities remain ancillary to the core photovoltaic EPC business, they increase the Group’s industrial depth. NFP, equal to € 17.69 million in FY25, is expected to progressively improve, while the proposed dividend of € 0.30 per share introduces a potentially recurring remuneration element. The new projections reflect a more prudent view of the 2026-2027 period, considering a first half characterized by a sector slowdown due to regulatory updates and incorporating the favourable phasing recorded in 2025, normalizing EBITDA margin in the 16.0%-17.0% range compared to previous expectations. Expected value of production for 2026 is therefore € 91.50 million, with EBITDA of € 15.00 million and EBITDA margin of 16.4%. We conducted the valuation of ESPE’s equity value using both the DCF method (including a specific risk premium of 2.5%) and the market multiples method. The average equity value is € 97.2 million; target price is therefore € 8,00 (prev. € 7,50), BUY rating, MEDIUM risk. |
