| Production value for FY25A stood at €41.89 million, up 20.9% from €34.66 million in FY24A. In FY25A, EBITDA stands at €1.55 million (compared to €-0.74 million in FY24A), whilst the EBITDA margin stands at 3.7% compared to -2.1% in the previous financial year. EBIT, after depreciation, amortisation and write-downs of €1.28 million, stands at €0.27 million in FY25A, up from €-1.87 million in FY24A. Similarly, the EBIT margin stands at 0.6%, compared to -5.4% in 2024. Net income stands at €0.01 million, up from €-1.50 million in 2024. In terms of balance sheet, NFP stands at €1.64 million in debt as at 31 December 2025, a deterioration compared to the NFP of €1.01 million in debt recorded at the end of 2024. In light of the results published in the FY25A report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY26E value of production at €45.40 million and EBITDA at €3.50 million, corresponding to a margin of 7.7%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to €51.00 million (CAGR 25A-28E: 6.8%) in FY28E, with EBITDA amounting to €5.00 million (corresponding to a margin of 9.8%), up from €1.55 million in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 3.7%). From a balance sheet perspective, we expect an improvement in the NFP, which, according to our estimates, is projected to move from a debt of €1.64 million in FY25A to a debt of €0.40 million in FY26E. We have assessed the equity value of Emma Villas using the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, also includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of €19.2 million. Emma Villas’ equity value, calculated using market multiples, amounts to €21.2 million (including a discount of 25%). This results in an average equity value of approximately €20.2 million. The target price is €2.90, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
