| In 2025, Reway Group delivered another year of strong growth, with value of production reaching € 278.33 million, up 19.8% vs FY24A and above our € 259.00 million forecast. EBITDA came in at € 49.64 million (+16.4%), with a 18.2% margin, while EBIT reached € 38.66 million (+18.6%) and consolidated net income rose to € 21.59 million (+20.7%). NFP stood at € 68.18 million of net debt, broadly stable compared to year-end 2024, despite higher working capital absorption and the extraordinary cash-out related to the Gema earn-out. The order backlog reached € 1,024.00 million, supported by more than € 246.00 million of new contract awards in 2025, confirming the Group’s strengthening positioning in infrastructure maintenance. In light of the recently published 2025 annual results, we revise our estimates for the current year and the following forecast years. Specifically, we now forecast a FY26E production value of € 304.50 million and EBITDA of € 56.85 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.0%. For the following years, we expect the production value to increase to € 351.50 million in FY28E (CAGR FY25A–FY28E: 8.2%), with EBITDA of € 69.00 million and a margin of 20.0%, up from € 49.64 million in FY25A. From a financial standpoint, we estimate for FY28E a NFP of € 16.51 million of debt. We valued Reway Group’s equity using both the DCF methodology and the market multiples analysis based on a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method, which prudently includes a 1.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation, yields an equity value of € 557.0 million. Reway Group’s equity value based on market multiples comes out at € 440.1 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately € 498.6 million. Our target price is € 12.85, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
