| In the 2022 financial year, Mexedia Group generated consolidated revenues amounting to € 140.90 million, up 6.9% compared to the FY21A figure. EBITDA, equal to € 8.37 million, saw an increase of 18.7%, compared to € 7.05 million in the previous year. The EBITDA Margin, equal to 5.9%, was also higher than the previous year’s figure of 5.3%. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.01 million, came in at € 8.36 million (€ 6.89 million in FY21A). Finally, the NFP came in at a debt value of € 26.38 million, worsening compared to the previous year’s value (€ 18.40 million of debt). In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, and the recent acquisitions of PhoneTime Inc. and Matchcom Inc., we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY23E value of production of € 310.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 15.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 490.00 million (CAGR 22Y-27E: 28.3%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 37.90 million (corresponding to a margin of 7.7%), up from € 8.37 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 5.9%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Mexedia based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 262.2 million. The target price is € 46.00, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |