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Research, Update 29 Mar 2023

UPDATE – 29.03.2022

The value of Revenues stands at € 23.18 mln, compared to a value of € 19.29 mln recorded at the end of 2021 (Pro-forma) and € 23.65 mln estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, equal to €2.39 mln, recorded an increase of 36.7% compared to the € 1.75 mln of the previous year (Pro-forma) and in line with our previous estimate of € 2.30 mln. EBITDA Margin, equal to 10.3%, was higher than the Pro-forma data of the previous year (9.1%) and our estimate (9.7%). Net Income came in at € 1.24 mln (€ 0.80 mln in FY21A*), in line with our previous estimate of € 1.20 mln. 

In the light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we confirm almost fully the estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY23E Revenues of € 24.70 mln, and EBITDA of € 2.60 mln, corresponding to a margin of 10.5%. For the following years, we expect the value of Revenues to rise to € 27.25 mln (CAGR 22Y-25E: 5.5%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 2.65 mln (corresponding to a margin of 9.7%), up from € 2.39 mln in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 10.3%). 

We carried out the valuation of the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which for prudential purposes also included a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 34.4 mln. Using market multiples, the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti is € 17.8 mln (including a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 26.1 mln. The target price is € 2.95, BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
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