| The value of production came in at € 91.27 million, compared to a value of € 40.13 million reported at the end of 2021, and € 80.00 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, equal to € 5.49 million, saw an increase of 169.0% compared to the € 2.04 million of the previous year, and is slightly below our previous estimate of €6.00 million. This value corresponds to an EBITDA Margin of 6.1%, up on the margin reported in FY21A of 5.2%, and below our estimate of 7.5%. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 1.32 million, came in at € 4.18 million, compared to € 1.50 million in 2021 (and to our estimate of € 5.00 million). The NFP showed a deterioration, rising from € 12.41 million to € 18.08 million of debt. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have updated our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E value of production of € 98.80 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 9.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 10.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 115.90 million in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 13.80 million (corresponding to a margin of 12.0%), up compared to a value of € 5.49 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 6.1%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Promotica based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 118.7 million. We therefore confirm a target price of €7.00, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |