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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 10.10.2022

The Company generated revenues of € 8.18 million,up 30.0% from the same period last year (€ 6.29 million as of 1H21A). The result is mainly attributable to sports events, including soccer, volleyball, basketball and motorcycling, as well as some races in the Ferrari one-make championship, amounting to approximately € 5.50 million. EBITDA as of 1H22A stood at € 3.06 million, registering an increase of approximately 20.0%, compared with last year’s first-half value of € 2.55 million, for an EBITDA margin of 37.4%. EBIT is € 0.51 million, while Net Income is negative at – € 0.08 million. 

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we slightly modify our estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate the FY22E value of production equal to € 20.00 million and EBITDA of € 6.75 million, corresponding to a marginality of 37.5%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 26.00 million (CAGR 21A-24E: 16.2%) in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 9.60 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 40.0%), up from € 4.90 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 36.5%).  

We have conducted the valuation of NVP’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of  € 66.6 million. The equity value of NVP using market multiples is equal to € 36.0 million (with a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of € 51.3 million. The target price is € 6.75 (prev. € 6,75), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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