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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 17.10.2022

At the end of the first half of 2022, the Company recorded a turnover of € 15.58 million, 46.0% up compared to € 10.67 million in 1H21A. EBITDA in the current period stood at € 1.56 million, up from 1H21A when it amounted to € 1.46 million (+7.0%). The Company’s EBITDA margin stood at 10.0% over the period and decreased compared to 13.7% in 1H21A. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation for a total of € 0.40 million and extraordinary income and expenses for a total of € 0.05 million, amounted to € 1.11 million, 1.4% down compared to 1H21A (€ 1.13 million). At the end of the analyzed period, the NFP amounted to € 7.44 million, a worsening compared to 31 December 2021, when it amounted to € 5.63 million. 

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate the FY22E value of production equal to € 47.00 million and EBITDA of € 6.00 million, corresponding to a marginality of 13.0%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 54.00 million (CAGR FY21A-24E: 28.2%) in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 8.30 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.4%), up from € 5.59 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 47.1%).

We have conducted the valuation of Nusco’s equity value based on the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 55.8 million. The target price is € 3.00 (prev. 2.80), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. 

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