| In the first half of 2026, ESPE continues its growth and industrial consolidation journey initiated following its IPO, driven by a vertical integration strategy across the renewable energy value chain. Value of Production stands at €41.04mn, with EBITDA reaching €7.75mn (18.9% margin, compared to 17.8% in 1H25A) and Net Income amounting to €3.92mn, highlighting further improvements in both business volumes and profitability. Net Financial Position (NFP) improves to €13.37 mln, compared to € 17.69 mln at the end of 2025, supported by positive cash generation, while the backlog reaches €109.60mn as of 30 September 2026, providing strong visibility on future performance. Over the coming months, the Company will focus on integrating Soland, in which ESPE now holds a 55.0% stake, expanding production capacity through the new facilities in Grantorto and Carmignano di Brenta, and executing its order backlog, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2027. In light of the results published in the consolidated half-year financial report as of June 30, 2026, we substantially confirm our estimates for the 2026–2028 period. Specifically, we expect FY26E Value of Production to reach €91.50mn, with EBITDA of €15.00mn and an EBITDA margin of 16.4%. For the following years, we expect business volumes to increase, with Value of Production growing to €121.50mn in FY28E (2025–2028 CAGR: 13.4%) and EBITDA reaching €20.70mn, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 17.0%. We conducted ESPE’s equity valuation using both the DCF methodology and the market multiples of a selected peer group of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudently includes a company-specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of €98.44mn. The equity value obtained through the market multiples approach amounts to €95.91mn, resulting in an average equity value of €97.20mn. We therefore set a target price of €8.00 per share, with a BUY rating and a MEDIUM risk profile. |
