| In the first half of 2026, Simone reported a Value of Production of € 9.73 mln, up 16.6% compared to € 8.34 mln in the first half of 2025. Revenues amounted to € 8.76 mln, increasing by 24.9% compared to € 7.01 mln in 1H25A. EBITDA stood at € 0.47 mln, up 21.0% compared to € 0.39 mln in 1H25A, with an EBITDA margin of 4.9% (4.7% in 1H25A). After depreciation, amortization and impairment charges of € 1.17 mln, up from € 0.85 mln in 1H25A as a result of the investments made, EBIT stood at € -0.69 mln, compared to € -0.46 mln in 1H25A. Net Income amounted to € -0.70 mln, compared to € -0.57 mln in 1H25A. From a balance sheet perspective, NFP stood at € 5.41 mln of net debt, slightly increasing compared to € 5.08 mln of net debt at the end of 2025. In light of the results published in the interim financial report for 1H26A, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate a Value of Production of € 18.50 mln for FY26E and EBITDA of € 2.60 mln, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.1%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to € 22.00 mln (CAGR 25A-28E: 6.7%) in FY28E, with EBITDA reaching € 3.20 mln (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.5%), up from € 2.54 mln in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.0%). From a balance sheet perspective, we expect NFP to reach € 5.51 mln of net debt in FY26E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Simone based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 20.2 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Simone was calculated as € 11.2 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 15.7 million. The target price is € 2.10, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
