Leggi il pdf
|Revenues amounted to € 43.12 million, up 42.5% from € 30.27 million in 2021, but down on our previous estimate of € 45.00 million. The First Margin recorded a value of € 2.80 million, up by 62.5% compared to € 1.72 million in the previous period, but lower than our estimate of € 3.15 million. Similarly, the ratio between the First Margin and Total Revenues went up from 5.7% in 2021 to 6.5% in 2022. Net Income was positive, demonstrating a strong growth, reaching a value of € 0.46 million, compared to the loss of € -0.10 million of the previous period. Lastly, the NFP amounted to € 0.14 million, down on the previous period, when it was € 1.05 million (cash positive), and on our previous estimate of € 1.65 million (cash positive), mainly due to changes in inventories and the postponement of a receivable already settled at the beginning of 2023.|
In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, we almost fully confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. We estimate a revenue volume for FY23E of € 37.00 million, with a First Margin of € 2.40 million, and an EBITDA of € 0.70 million. In the following years, we expect sales to reach € 43.00 million in FY25E, with a First Margin of € 2.85 million, and an EBITDA of € 1.00 million. Finally, we expect an improvement in the NFP, which, according to our estimates, will go from € 0.14 million in FY22A to € 2.97 million (cash positive) in FY25E.
We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Confinvest based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 15.5 million. The target price is therefore € 2.20 (prev. € 2.15), BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.