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Research, Update 12 Apr 2023

UPDATE – 12.04.2023

In the financial statements as at December 31, 2022, NVP confirmed its growth trend, communicating revenues to a value of € 17.41 million, a clear improvement on the FY21A result of € 12.95 million (+34.4%). EBITDA, as a result, rose by € 5.61 million, up 15.61% on € 4.87 million in FY21A, with an EBITDA Margin of 32.2% in 2022. EBIT stands at € 1.23 million, up 15.10% compared to € 1.04 million in FY21A, due to the increase in depreciation in the revaluation of production equipment, including Outside Broadcasting (OB) vans. Net Income was also positive, amounting to € 0.23 million.

In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, we substantially confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E Value of Production of € 24.50 million, with an EBITDA of € 7.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 34.4%. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to rise to € 33.00 in FY25E, with an EBITDA of € 11.2 million (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 36.0%), up on the value of € 5.61 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 32.2%).

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of NVP based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 67.3 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of NVP is € 46.7million (including a 25,0% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 57.0 million. The target price is € 7,50, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.
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