NVP / 03.12.2019

Ultima Ricerca NVP

• UPDATE – 16.04.2024

  In the consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2023, NVP reported revenues of € 27.48 million, marking a growth of 57.9% compared to € 17.41 million in FY22A, and exceeding the estimate of our previous report of € 24.50 million. EBITDA for the period was € 7.75 million, up 38.2% compared to € 5.61 million in FY22A. The EBITDA margin fell slightly, from 32.2% in FY22A to 28.2% in 2023. EBIT came in at € 3.11 million, up 47.0% from € 2.11 million in FY21A, substantially in line with our previous report’s estimate of € 3.25 million. Net Income was also positive, at € 0.73 million. In light of the results published in the financial statements for FY23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 35.50 million, with an EBITDA of € 10.25 million, corresponding to a margin of 31.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 49.50 in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 16.45 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 35.0%), up from € 7.75 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 28.2%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of NVP based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 74.02 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of NVP is € 66.57 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results gives an average equity value of approximately € 70.29 million. The target price is € 9.25, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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