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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 11.10.2022

Revenues amounted to € 27.66 million, compared to a value of € 14.62 million recorded in 1H21A. EBITDA amounted to € 6.65 million, up compared to 1H21A, when it was equal to € 2.46 million. The EBITDA margin stands at 24.0%, showing a considerable increase compared to the marginality of the first half of 2021 (16.8%). EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.94 million, amounted to € 5.71 million, an improvement compared to the value of € 1.50 million of 30 June 2021. The NFP for 1H22A, equal to € 0.19 million, is worsening compared to the value of the previous annual report (cash positive for € 1.88 million).

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify the estimates for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E revenues of € 58.00 million and EBITDA of € 13.35 million, corresponding to a marginality of 23.0%. For subsequent years, we expect the revenues to increase up to € 76.00 million (CAGR 21A-24E: 23.5%) in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 18.25 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 24.0%), up from € 8.79 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 21.8%). In terms of the Balance Sheet, we estimate a cash positive NFP equal to € 9.45 million for FY24E. 

We have conducted the valuation of FOPE’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 175.4 million. The equity value using market multiples is € 153.9 million (including a discount of 25%). The result is an average equity value of €164.7 million. The target price is, therefore, € 30.50 (prev. €20.00). We confirm BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. 

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