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Research, Update 12 Jan 2023

UPDATE – 10.10.2022

The value of production, equal to € 31.56 million, is 24.5% up compared to the previous period closed with an amount of € 25.35 million. EBITDA, equal to € 3.39 million, decreased by 10.8% compared to the value of 1H21A, which stood at € 3.80 million. EBIT, after amortization of € 0.51 million, amounted to € 2.88 million, down compared to the first half of the previous fiscal year (€ 3.24 million). Net Income amounted to € 1.99 million, registering a 19.2% decrease compared to the figure as of 30 June 2021 (€ 2.46 million). The NFP went from € – 4.93 million in FY21A to € – 6.90 million in 1H22A, registering an overall improvement of € 1.97 million.

In  light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E value of production equal to € 75.00 million and EBITDA of € 11.50 million, corresponding to a marginality of 15.3%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 89.00 million (CAGR FY21A-24E: 15.1%) in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 18.70 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 21.0%), up from € 10.88 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 18.6%). We estimate an NFP for FY24E cash positive and equal to € 21.20 million.

We have conducted the valuation of Sebino equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 134.7 million. The equity value of Sebino using market multiples is equal to € 134.9 million (with a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of €134.8 million. The target price is € 10.00 (prev. € 9.31), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
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