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Research, Update 12 Jan 2023

UPDATE – 07.10.2022

The Group, in the consolidated half-year financial report as of 30 June 2022, reported that it had generated a value of production of € 6.42 million, recording an increase of 20.7% compared to the value of € 5.32 million for 1H21A. EBITDA increased from € 2.13 million in 1H21A to € 3.60 million in 1H22A, registering an increase of 69.3% due to the growth in revenues and the reduction in costs incurred by the Group’s foreign companies. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.60 million, amounted to € 3.00 million, up compared to the value of € 1.67 million in the first half of the previous fiscal year, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 46.7% against 31.3% in 1H21A. 

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate the FY22E value of production equal to € 13.00 million and EBITDA of € 6.30 million, corresponding to a marginality of 48.5%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 18.00 million (CAGR FY21A-24E: 14.87%) in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 7.40 million (EBITDA margin of 40.8%), up from € 5.59 million in FY21A (EBITDA margin of 47.1%).

We have conducted the valuation of Renergetica equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of  € 73.2 million. The equity value of Renergetica using market multiples is equal to € 72.2 million (with a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of € 72.7 million. The target price is € 9.00 (prev. € 9.00), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
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