| The Brokerage Margin stands at € 3.63 million, compared to a value of € 3.86 million recorded at the end of 2021 and € 3.50 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, equal to € -0.38 million, recorded a decrease compared to the FY21A value, amounting to € 0.09 million, and to our estimates equal to € -0.30 million. Consequently, the EBITDA margin went from 1.5% in FY21A to -6.1% in FY22A. EBIT, after depreciation, amortization and write-downs of € 0.34 million, stands at € -0.84 million (€ -0.31 million in 2021), compared to our estimates of € -0.65 million. Net Income stands at € -0.80 million (€ -0.27 million in 2021), showing a decrease from the € -0.55 million of our previous estimates. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate a Brokerage Margin for FY23E equal to € 4.25 million and an EBITDA equal to € 0.40 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.6%. For the following years, we expect the Brokerage Margin to rise to € 6.15 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 14.1%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 1.95 million (corresponding to a margin of 20 .5%), up from € -0.38 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of -6.1%). We conducted the valuation of the equity value of SCM based on the DCF method and the complex equity method. The value resulting from the application of the DCF method (which for prudential purposes includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) is equal to € 11.7 million, while that resulting from the complex equity method is equal to € 11.2 million. The result is an average equity value of € 11.4 million. The target price is € 5.70 (prev. €6.05), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |