| In the consolidated financial statements as at December 31, 2022, Altea Green Power recorded sales revenues of € 7.56 million, with a value of production value of € 16.72 million, marking a 169.0% growth compared to the FY21A result, equal to € 6.22 million. EBITDA came in at a value of € 6.16 million, recording a growth of 187.1% compared to the result at the end of 2021 of € 2.15 million. EBIT, after depreciation, amortization and write-downs of € 0.16 million, is positive and stands at € 6.00 million, again a significant increase, by as much as 181.3% compared to the € 2.13 million recorded in FY21A. Net Income was also positive, amounting to € 4.12 million, versus € 1.19 million in the previous year. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have modified our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate a FY23E value of production equal to € 22.15 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 8.85 million, corresponding to a margin of 40.0%. Over the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 43.00 million (CAGR FY22Y – FY26E: 26.6%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 20.20 million (corresponding to a margin of 47.0%), up from € 6.16 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 36.8%). We conducted the valuation of the equity value of Altea Green Power on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 110.5 million. The equity value of Altea Green Power using market multiples is equal to € 95.5 million (with a 10,0% discount). The result is an average equity value of € 103.0 million. The target price is € 6.20 (prev. € 5.00), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |