| During 2025, the Group recorded a significant expansion in its core business, with a value of production equal to € 13.09 million, up by 45.7% compared to € 8.99 million as of December 31st, 2024, mainly supported by the increase in work in progress. EBITDA amounted to € 3.68 million, marking a +8.2% increase compared to € 3.40 million in the previous year. However, profitability shows a physiological normalization, with an EBITDA margin of 28.1% (vs. 37.8% in 2024), reflecting higher operating costs in a context of expansion in both the Group’s scope and activity volumes. Due to the higher weight of depreciation and amortization, amounting to approximately € 1.49 million, EBIT stood at € 2.19 million, slightly decreasing compared to € 2.27 million in 2024. Net Income amounted to € 0.86 million, down from € 1.51 million recorded at the end of the previous financial year. In light of the FY25A annual results, we confirm our estimates for the 2026–2028 period. In particular, for FY26E we forecast a value of production of € 27.00 million and an EBITDA of € 7.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 28.1%. For the following years, we expect a positive evolution of the main economic and financial indicators, with value of production projected to grow up to € 35.60 million in FY28E (CAGR 2026E–2028E: 14.8%) and EBITDA reaching € 10.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 28.7%, improving compared to € 3.68 million recorded in FY25A. From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate a net financial position of € 3.92 million in debt for FY28E. We carried out the valuation of Franchetti’s equity value based on the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which, in the WACC calculation, prudently includes a specific risk premium of 2.5%) yields an equity value of approximately € 127.4 million. The target price is € 13.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
