| In FY25A, Doxee reported a Value of Production of € 33.95 million, up 13.7% from € 29.85 million in FY24A and broadly in line with our previous estimates, supported by the positive performance of both Italy and the DACH region, with the latter showing further strong expansion. The Subscription component remains predominant, with revenues of € 22.48 million and a 72.4% share of total revenues, confirming the recurring and highly visible nature of the business. EBITDA reached € 6.27 million, more than doubling compared to € 2.94 million in FY24A, with a margin of 18.5%, above our expectations. EBIT returned to positive territory at € 1.40 million, while Net Income amounted to € 0.35 million, marking a return to profitability after a loss of € -3.67 million in FY24A. From a balance sheet perspective, net financial position improved significantly to € 14.16 million from € 19.22 million, supported by strong operating cash generation. In light of the FY25A results, we largely confirm our estimates for both the current year and the medium term. Specifically, we forecast FY26E Value of Production at € 38.00 million and EBITDA at € 8.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 22.9%. Looking ahead, we expect Value of Production to reach € 46.00 million by FY28E (CAGR 25A–28E: 10.7%), with EBITDA of € 13.00 million (28.3% margin), up from € 6.27 million in FY25A (18.5% margin). From a financial standpoint, we estimate a cash-positive net financial position of € 0.86 million by FY28E. We evaluated Doxee’s equity value using both the DCF method and peer group multiples. The DCF method (including a 2.50% company-specific risk in the WACC as a conservative measure) results in an equity value of € 83.4 million. The equity value based on market multiples is € 78.9 million. The average equity value stands at approximately € 81.2 million. The target price is € 7.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
