| In FY25A, Haiki+ reported a Value of Production of € 281,12 mln, up 52.7% compared to € 184.13 mln in FY24A, reflecting the contribution of the new consolidation perimeter following growth transactions, in particular the inclusion of Haiki Metals from the second half and the consolidation of activities resulting from the demerger, as well as the progressive development and ramp-up of Haiki+’s various BUs. EBITDA amounted to € 45.96 mln, up 80.6% compared to € 25.45 mln in FY24A, with an EBITDA margin of 16.3%, improving from 13.8% in the previous year. EBIT also showed a significant increase, reaching € 10.51 mln compared to € 2.72 mln in FY24A, with an EBIT margin of 3,7%, while Net Income stood at € 0.38 mln, compared to a loss of € 2.29 mln in FY24A. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position worsened, moving from € 53.33 mln of debt to € 108.70 mln of debt. In light of the results published in the FY25A annual report, we update our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate a Value of Production of € 343.00 mln in FY26E and an EBITDA of € 55.00 mln, corresponding to a margin of 16,0%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to grow to € 380.00 mln by FY28E (CAGR FY25A–FY28E: 10.6%), with EBITDA reaching € 68.30 mln (EBITDA margin of 18.0%), up from € 45.96 mln in FY25A (margin of 16.3%). From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate a Net Financial Position of € 37.13 mln (debt) in FY28E, improving from € 108.70 mln in FY25A. We carried out the valuation of the Group’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and on multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudently incorporates a specific risk in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 220,5 mln, while the valuation based on market multiples is € 114.7 mln. This leads to an average equity value of approximately € 167.6 mln, corresponding to an unchanged target price of € 1.30, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
