| Revenues amounted to € 43.12 million, up 42.5% from € 30.27 million in 2021, but down on our previous estimate of € 45.00 million. The First Margin recorded a value of € 2.80 million, up by 62.5% compared to € 1.72 million in the previous period, but lower than our estimate of € 3.15 million. Similarly, the ratio between the First Margin and Total Revenues went up from 5.7% in 2021 to 6.5% in 2022. Net Income was positive, demonstrating a strong growth, reaching a value of € 0.46 million, compared to the loss of € -0.10 million of the previous period. Lastly, the NFP amounted to € 0.14 million, down on the previous period, when it was € 1.05 million (cash positive), and on our previous estimate of € 1.65 million (cash positive), mainly due to changes in inventories and the postponement of a receivable already settled at the beginning of 2023. In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, we almost fully confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. We estimate a revenue volume for FY23E of € 37.00 million, with a First Margin of € 2.40 million, and an EBITDA of € 0.70 million. In the following years, we expect sales to reach € 43.00 million in FY25E, with a First Margin of € 2.85 million, and an EBITDA of € 1.00 million. Finally, we expect an improvement in the NFP, which, according to our estimates, will go from € 0.14 million in FY22A to € 2.97 million (cash positive) in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Confinvest based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 15.5 million. The target price is therefore € 2.20 (prev. € 2.15), BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |