| FY25A represents a key milestone in Redelfi’s growth path, as it confirms both the validity of the strategic focus on Italy and the increasing ability to translate the progress of the BESS pipeline into economic results significantly higher than the previous year. The Group closed 2025 with a value of production of € 27.07 million, up 36.6%, EBITDA of € 15.78 million (+68.0%), with an EBITDA margin of 58.3%, EBIT of € 14.02 million and Net Income of € 7.53 million, of which € 5.22 million attributable to the Group. The Company also reported the achievement of the guidance set out in the 2023–2026 Business Plan, with EBITDA slightly above plan expectations and pro-forma NFP broadly in line. In light of the results published in the annual report, and ahead of the upcoming release of an updated Business Plan by the Company, we leave our estimates largely unchanged, extending the forecast horizon to 2028. In particular, we expect value of production of € 36.00 million in 2026, with EBITDA of € 24.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 68.6%. In the following years, we expect value of production to grow to € 46.50 million in FY28E (CAGR 2025–2028: 19.8%) and EBITDA of € 32.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 69.0%. We carried out the valuation of Redelfi’s equity value based on both the DCF method and market multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF (which, in the WACC calculation, prudently includes a specific risk premium of 2.5%) results in an equity value of € 183.3 million. The equity value based on market multiples is € 167.3 million. This leads to an average equity value of approximately € 175.3 million. The target price is € 14.60, rating BUY and risk MEDIUM. |
