| At the end of the financial year, the Group recorded significant growth across its main economic and financial indicators. Specifically, the value of production for FY25A* reached € 11.41 million, representing an increase of 100.2% compared to € 5.70 million in the same period of 2024 (pro-forma), and broadly in line with our latest forecasts (€ 10.90 million). FY25A* EBITDA amounted to € 2.35 million, with a margin of 20.6%, marking an increase of 130.8% compared to € 1.02 million in FY24A*, which corresponded to a margin of 17.9%. Pro-forma Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 stood at approximately € 2.55 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.3%. FY25A* EBIT came in at € 1.30 million, up 102.2% compared to € 0.64 million recorded at the end of 2024 (FY24A*), while net profit amounted to € 0.70 million, increasing from € 0.28 million in the previous financial year. In light of results that are broadly in line with previous expectations and the ongoing progress in the integration process of the acquired companies, we substantially confirm our estimates for 2026 and the following years. Specifically, we estimate a value of production for FY26E of € 13.80 million and EBITDA of € 3.45 million, corresponding to a margin of 25.0%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 20.60 million (CAGR 26E–28E: 22.2%) in FY28E, with EBITDA reaching € 6.45 million (corresponding to a margin of 31.3%), up from € 2.35 million in FY25A* (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 20.6%). At a balance sheet level, we estimate for FY28E a NFP of € 11.98 million cash positive. We carried out the valuation of Metriks AI’s equity value based on both the DCF methodology and the market multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudently includes a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 59.1 million. The equity value of Metriks AI based on market multiples amounts to € 50.8 million, resulting in an average equity value of approximately € 54.9 million. The target price is € 6.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
