| In FY25A, the Group reported revenues of € 93.58 million, up 27.4% from € 73.43 million in FY24A and above our estimate of € 87.90 million. EBITDA amounted to € 20.52 million, increasing by 38.6% compared to € 14.80 million in FY24A and exceeding expectations of € 19.40 million, with an EBITDA margin of 21.9%, improving from 20.2% in the previous year. EBIT also showed a positive trend, reaching € 17.47 million (+44.2% YoY), with an EBIT margin of 18.7%, while Net Income stood at € 11.45 million, up 36.6% compared to € 8.38 million in FY24A and broadly in line with our forecasts. From a balance sheet perspective, net financial position improved significantly, moving from a cash-positive position of € 3.26 million to € 10.04 million. Following the publication of the FY25A annual report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the medium term. Specifically, we forecast FY26E revenues at € 110.00 million and EBITDA at € 24.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 21.9%. Looking ahead, we expect revenues to increase to € 144.20 million by FY28E (CAGR 25A–28E: 15.5%), with EBITDA reaching € 32.75 million in FY28E (22.7% margin), up from € 20.52 million in FY25A (21.9% margin). From a financial standpoint, we estimate a cash-positive net financial position of € 13.89 million by FY28E. We conducted the valuation of FOPE’s equity value based on the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk of 1.0% in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 279.6 million. The equity value of FOPE based on market multiples is € 263.9 million. The average equity value therefore amounts to approximately € 271.7 million. We set a target price of € 50.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
