| In the press release dated 4 March 2026, the Franchetti Group, which operates in advanced diagnostics, digital monitoring and predictive maintenance of infrastructure, announced the signing of a binding agreement for the acquisition of 55.0% of ECR Engenharia Ltda and ECR Tecnologia e Engenharia Ltda, Brazilian companies providing engineering services for transport infrastructure and complex civil engineering works. The transaction, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026 through a newly incorporated Brazilian company controlled by Franchetti, represents a particularly significant strategic step in the Group’s international growth trajectory. It is fully in line with the development model outlined in recent years, based on a balance between organic growth and targeted M&A transactions, aimed at expanding specialised engineering expertise and integrating proprietary software solutions, including Argan®, Pathwork© and SIDECHECK©, used for analysing the condition of infrastructure and planning maintenance work with a predictive approach. In light of the new scope of operations, which includes the acquisition of the ECR Group, as well as the growth prospects of the acquired company, the expected synergies and the growth already demonstrated by Franchetti SpA, we are carrying out a significant revision of our estimates, with particular reference to the period 2026–2028, whilst making only minor adjustments to the forecasts for the current financial year. Specifically, for FY25E we estimate a production value of €12.50 million and an EBITDA of €3.50 million, corresponding to a margin of 28.0%. For subsequent financial years, we anticipate a positive trend in the key financial indicators, with VoP expected to grow to €35.60 million in FY28E (CAGR 2026E–2028E: 14.8%) and EBITDA of €10.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 28.7%, an improvement on the €3.40 million recorded in FY24A. From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate a net financial position of €3.93 million in debt for FY28E. We have assessed Franchetti’s equity value using the DCF method. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, also includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of approximately €127.3 million. The target price is €13.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
