| The Value of Production amounted to € 10.90 million, down from €12.55 million recorded in the first half of 2024. EBITDA, equal to € 1.70 million, decreased by 9.7% compared to € 1.89 million in 1H24A; however, the EBITDA margin improved to 15.6% (vs. 15.0% in 1H24A), confirming the effectiveness of efficiency measures and the Group’s ability to maintain a flexible cost structure. EBIT stood at € 1.03 million, up 22.2% compared to 1H24A, driven by the rationalization of operating expenses. The consolidated Net Income amounted to €0.61 million (vs. €0.56 million in 1H24A), marking a 9.1% increase. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position (NFP) moved from a cash-positive position of €1.36 million at the end of 2024 to a net debt position of €1.04 million as of June 30, 2025, mainly due to the investment in the property located at Via Ripamonti 549 in Milan. In light of the results published in the 1H25A Half-Year Report, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we now estimate a FY25E Value of Production of €25.00 million and an EBITDA of €3.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 15.0%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to €32.00 million by FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 11.8%), with EBITDA reaching €6.30 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.9%, compared to €2.64 million in FY24A (EBITDA margin: 11.6%). From a balance sheet perspective, we expect a deterioration in the Net Financial Position (NFP), which according to our estimates will shift from a cash-positive position of €1.36 million in FY24A to a net debt position of €0.71 million in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of ABTG based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 33.7 million. The target price is € 6.25, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
