| In 1H25A, the Group recorded a value of production of €11.78 million, up 62.1% compared to €7.27 million in 1H24A. EBITDA amounted to €2.66 million, increasing from €1.75 million in 1H24A, with an EBITDA margin of 22.6% (24.1% in 1H24A). EBIT stood at €1.25 million, slightly down from €1.29 million in the prior-year period, with an EBIT margin of 10.6%, compared to 17.8% in 1H24A. The contraction in margin is attributable to higher depreciation and amortisation expenses, which amounted to €1.42 million. Net Income totalled €1.05 million, broadly in line with the €1.03 million reported in 1H24A. From a balance sheet perspective, the adjusted Net Financial Position was cash positive by €2.20 million, slightly down from the cash positive position of €4.30 million reported at year-end 2024. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H25A, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY25E production value at €25.00 million and EBITDA at €5.40 million, corresponding to a margin of 21.6%. For the following years, we expect the production value to increase to €34.50 million in FY28E (CAGR 24A–28E: 24.0%), with EBITDA reaching €8.70 million (corresponding to a margin of 25.2%), up from €3.01 million in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 20.7%). With regard to estimated investments, we forecast Capex for 2025E–2028E at approximately €9.12 million; finally, we estimate an adjusted Net Financial Position for FY25E at €4.24 million cash positive. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Circle based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 48.2 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Circle was calculated as € 52.2 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 50.2 million. The target price is € 10.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
