| Green Oleo, in its financial statement as of June 30th, 2022, reported a value of production of € 34.56 million, of which € 33.40 million came from sales revenues, € 1.58 million came from inventory changes, and € 2.75 million came from the other revenues item. EBITDA came in equal to € 1.05 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 3.0% on the value of production. EBIT, considering the issues mentioned above, recorded a negative value for the first half-year of 2023, equal to € -0.16 million, following D&A of € 1.21 million. Net Income, calculated net of deferred taxes of € 0.60 million, was positive and amounted to € 0.12 million. In light of the FY22A results, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate a FY23E value of production of € 74.70 million and an EBITDA of € 4.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.4%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 116.30 million in FY26E, with EBITDA of € 10.80 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 9.3 %), up compared to the value of € 8.15 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 9.4%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Green Oleo based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk equal to 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 108.4 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Green Oleo is € 63.0 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 85.7 million. The target price is € 2.65 (prev. €3.25), with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk |