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Research, Update 27 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 29.09.2022

Revenues for the first year half amounted to € 21.53 million, 6.1% up compared to € 20.30 million in 1H21A. The value of the production recorded an increase of 20.6% (€ 26.30 million in 1H22A vs € 21.80 million in 1H21A), mainly due to the increase in the warehouse on which the new acquisition MACS Srl affects for € 1.00 million. EBITDA amounted to € 4.65 million (€ 4.38 million in 1H21A) with EBITDA margin equal to 21.6% unchanged compared to the first half of last year. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 1.03 million, amounted to € 3.43 million, slightly higher than the result of 1H21A of € 3.28 million. The NFP amounted to € 0.09 million, worsening compared to the cash positive value of € 3.39 million for FY21A. 

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we maintain our estimates substantially unchanged for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E value of production equal to € 47.50 million and EBITDA of € 9.95 million, corresponding to a marginality of 21.9%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 54.50 million (CAGR FY21A – FY24E: 7.4%) in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 11.80 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 22.7%), up from € 9.01 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 21.3%).

We have conducted the valuation of Ilpra equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 81.7 million. The equity value of Ilpra using market multiples is equal to € 86.9 million (with a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of € 84.3 million. The target price is € 7.00 (prev. € 7.50), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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