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Research, Update 13 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 28.09.2022

The Group’s value of production amounted to € 14.69 million, 27.0% up compared to the half-yearly data of the previous period (€ 11.57 million). EBITDA for the period amounted to € 1.60 million, 4.0% up compared to € 1.54 million in 1H21A. However, the EBITDA margin decreased by 2.4% from 13.3% in 1H21A to 10.9% in 1H22A. EBIT is equal to € – 0.15 million, down from € 0.25 million in 1H21A. Finally, Net Income amounted to € 0.14 million, down compared to the previous period (€ 0.25 million). The NFP is equal to € 1.91 million, a worsening compared to 1.62 million on 31 December 2021.

In the light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate a value of production for FY22E of € 30.00 million and an estimated EBITDA of € 5.80 million, corresponding to a marginality of 19.3%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 54.20 million (CAGR 21A-25E: 20.0%) in FY25E, with EBITDA of € 16.30 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 30.1%), up from € 5.33 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 20.4%). 

We have conducted the valuation of Doxee’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 129.0 million. The equity value of Doxee using the market multiple EV/EBITDA, is equal to € € 94.3 million. The result is an average equity value of € 111.7 million. The target price is, therefore, € 14.00 (prev. €14.50). We confirm BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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