| The value of production came in at € 15.84 million, up on the value of € 14.18 million recorded at the end of 2021, and down slightly on the € 15.50 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, amounting to € 2.48 million, fell by 34.3% compared to € 3.77 million in the previous year, and was lower than our estimate of € 3.15 million. The EBITDA Margin, equal to 15.6%, was also down on the value of 2021 (26.6%), and below our previous estimate of 20.3%. Net Income was € -0.62 million, compared to € 0.82 million in 2021. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E value of production of € 18.70 million, and EBITDA of € 3.75 million, corresponding to a margin of 20.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 25.50 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 17.2%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 6.55 million (corresponding to a margin of 25.7%), up from € 2.48m in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.6%). On the balance sheet, we estimate a cash positive NFP for FY25E of € 7.50 million. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of ABTG based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 38.2 million. The target price is € 7.50, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |