At the end of FY24A, the value of production amounted to € 9.46 million, recording a slight decrease both compared to FY23A (-16.9%), which was € 11.37 million, and our previous estimates of € 11.50 million. EBITDA for FY24A stood at € 0.61 million, showing an increase of 14.7% compared to € 0.53 million in the previous period, but falling short of our earlier estimate of € 1.10 million. The EBITDA margin rose from 4.7% in FY23A to 6.4% in FY24A. EBIT, after depreciation and amortisation of € 0.36 million, amounted to € 0.25 million, an increase compared to € 0.14 million in FY23A. As a result, the EBIT margin stood at 2.6%, higher than the 1.2% recorded in FY23A. Net income at the end of the period was € 0.15 million, a slight increase from € 0.01 million in FY23A, though also below our estimate of € 0.45 million.
In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the upcoming years. Specifically, we forecast FY25E revenues of € 10.10 million and EBITDA of € 0.95 million, corresponding to a margin of 9.4%. For the following years, we expect revenues to increase to € 12.80 million in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 10.6%), with EBITDA reaching € 2.25 million (corresponding to a margin of 17.6%), up from € 0.61 million in FY24A (corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.4%). In terms of balance sheet figures, we estimate a cash-positive net financial position of € 0.37 million for FY27E. We carried out the equity valuation of Deodato.gallery using the DCF methodology (including a 2.5% specific risk in the WACC calculation for prudential purposes). The resulting average equity value is approximately € 18.7 million. The target price is € 0.60, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
