| Inthe consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2023, Promotica Group reported consolidated sales revenues of € 84.51 million, compared to € 89.86 million in 2022, the first financial year of the plan, therefore marking a slight contraction of -6.0%. EBITDA for the period amounted to € 7.80 million, compared to € 5.49 million in the previous year, marking a significant growth of 42.1%. The EBITDA margin on revenues came in at 9.2%, up from 6.1% at the end of 2022. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 1.46 million, rose by 51.9%, reaching € 6.34 million, compared to € 4.18 million in the previous year, with an EBIT margin that improved from 4.6% to 7.5%. The Net Income was also positive, at € 3.35 million, compared to € 3.23 million in 2022. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have slightly modified our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 101.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 10.0 million, corresponding to a margin of 10.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 118.90 million in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 14.20 million (corresponding to a margin of 12.0%), compared to €7.80 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 9.2%). The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 110.93 million. The target price is therefore € 6.50 (prev. € 7,00). We confirm a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |