| In its press release of January 15, 2024, Altea Green Power announced its approval of the new 2024-2028 Business Plan, drawn up considering the significant progress over the last year, in comparison with the expectations of the 2021-2025. The business strategy for the period 2024-2028 is focused on consolidating the positioning of Altea Green Power as a leading player in the development of BESS projects in Italy, with the aim of achieving a market share of around 10.0%, and an installed power of over 5GW by 2028. The Company also plans to continue the expansion of storage co-development projects in the USA and grow its business activities in the development, construction and management of proprietary photovoltaic plants in Italy. In light of the new Business Plan, we have adjusted our estimates for both the year just conncluded and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate a FY23E value of production equal to € 17.20 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 7.25 million, corresponding to a margin of 42.2%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 54.40 million (CAGR FY22A – FY26E: 34.3%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 33.75 million (corresponding to a margin of 62.0%), up from € 6.16 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 36.8%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Altea Green Power based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.0% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 271.3 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Altea Green Power is € 213.4 million. The results give an average equity value of € 242.4 million. The target price is € 14.00 (prev. € 6.75). We confirm a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |