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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 22.09.2022

The results in 1H22A show how the Company has been able to successfully continue its growth path, despite the known critical macroeconomic issues. Portobello recorded a turnover of € 48.82 million and value of production equal to € 49.01 million, an increase of 66.5% compared to 1H21A, which amounted to € 29.44 million. EBITDA for the period amounted to € 6.43 million, a decrease compared to 1H21A (€ 7.32 million), and the EBITDA margin went from 24.9% of 1H21A to 13.1%, due to the increasing costs for promotional activity. Net Income is positive, equal to € 2.75 mln, but we see a deterioration in NFP, equal to € 27.58 mln, because of the large cash absorption due to the opening of new stores during the period.

In the light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E value of production equal to € 140.00 million and EBITDA of € 22.45 million, corresponding to a marginality of 16.0%. For subsequent years, we expect the value of production to increase up to € 250.00 million (CAGR FY21A – FY25E: 29.76%) in FY25E, with EBITDA of € 50.00 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 20.0%), up from € 16.52 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 18.7%).

We have conducted the valuation of Portobello’s equity value based on the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which, in the calculation of WACC, includes a specific risk of 1,5% for prudential purposes) provides an equity value equal to € 273.9 million. The target price, therefore, is € 78.00 (prev. € 85.00). We confirm BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. 

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