| In 2024, Siav maintained a stable Value of Production at € 33.91 mln, in line with both the previous year and expectations. Revenue growth, reaching € 33.65 mln (+4.9%), was driven by management efficiency and a strategic focus on high value-added business lines— particularly the Software segment, which generated € 15.23 mln (+6.4%), accounting for 45.7% of total revenues, with over 80.0% being recurring. EBITDA rose to € 6.27 mln (+17.4%), supported by cost rationalization, resulting in a margin of 18.5%. Despite the increase in amortization, EBIT reached € 1.35 mln (+47.8%). Net Income was negative at € -1.49 mln, due to extraordinary expenses linked to the restructuring plan. Net Financial Position (NFP) stood at € 20.88 mln of debt, reflecting investments in the Connect platform, which is intended to become the cornerstone of Siav’s future offering. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we almost entirely confirm our estimates for the current and coming years. Specifically, we confirm a FY25E Value of Production of € 38.30 mln and EBITDA of € 8.35 mln, corresponding to a margin of 21.8%. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to grow to € 47.25 mln in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 11.7%), with EBITDA reaching € 12.10 mln (equivalent to a 25.6% margin), up from € 6.27 mln in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 18.5%). From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate a Net Financial Position of € 13.35 mln in debt for FY27E. We conducted Siav’s equity value assessment using both the DCF method and a multiples-based comparison with a sample of comparable companies. The DCF valuation (which prudently includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 57.6 mln. The market multiples approach yields an equity value of € 58.0 mln. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 57.8 mln. Our target price is € 6.30, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
