SIAV S.p.A. /04.08.2022

Ultima Ricerca SIAV S.p.A.

• UPDATE – 09.04.2024

  Revenues amounted to € 32.09 million, down 1.4% from € 32.54 million in FY22A. EBITDA was € 5.34 million, remaining substantially in line with that of FY22A, equal to € 5.83 million. The EBITDA margin for FY23A, calculated on the value of production, came in equal to 15.8%, compared to 17.3% in FY22A. EBIT was € 0.91 million, marking a decrease from the FY22A value of € 1.76 million. Net Income for the Group was € -0.46 million. On the balance sheet, the NFP went from € 16.51 million in FY22A to € 19.64 million in FY23A. We estimate a balance sheet debt NFP of € 7.46 million for FY26E. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY24E value of production of € 40.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 8.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 20.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 54.00 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 16.8%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 12.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 23.1%), increasing from € 5.34 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.8%).  We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Siav on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 64.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Siav was calculated to be € 60.7 million (including a 25% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 62.3 million. The target price is € 6.80, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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