SIAV S.p.A. /04.08.2022

Ultima Ricerca SIAV S.p.A.

• UPDATE – 04.04.2023

  The Group, as at December 31, 2022, recorded a Value of Production of € 33.75 million, up 3.6% compared to € 32.58 million in FY21A. EBITDA came in at € 5.83 million, slightly down on FY21A, when it amounted to € 5.87 million. Similarly, the EBITDA Margin went down from 18.0% in FY21A to 17.3% in FY22A. EBIT amounted to € 1.76 million, down 21.6% on the value of the previous period (€ 2.24 million). As for Net Income, the Group recorded a value of € 0.86 million, down on the € 1.63 million of FY21A, equal to 47.1%.  In the light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, and the adoption of IAS/IFRS international accounting standards, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E Value of Production equal to € 38.60 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 7.55 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.6%. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to rise to € 48.15 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 12.5%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 12.65 million (corresponding to a margin of 26.3%), up from € 5.83 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 17.3%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Siav based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 75.9 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Siav was calculated as equal to € 67.2 million (including a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 71.5 million. The target price is € 7.80, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.

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