| In its annual financial report as of December 31, 2022, Impianti reported a revenue of € 10.03 million, up 5.3% compared to the value reported in 2021 (€ 9.5 million). Adjusted EBITDA (with respect to non-recurring costs) amounted to € 0.18 million, reporting an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.8% (10.6% in FY21A). EBIT came in at a negative value of € 0.12 million in 2022, compared to € 0.93 million in 2021. Net Income was also negative, amounting to -€ 0.05 million, compared to a profit of € 0.56 million reported as of December 31, 2021. In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E value of production of € 13.10 million, and EBITDA equal to € 0.65 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 21.70 million in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 2.20 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 10.2%), up compared to the value of € 0.14 million reported in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 1.4%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Impianti based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 24.2 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Impianti is € 11.9 million (including a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 18.0 million. The target price is € 2.35, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |